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SEPTEMBER 28,  2018

THE FBI IN PEACE AND WAR – AT 11:50 P.M. ET:   So it is done.  There will in fact be an FBI probe into the allegations made by Professor Christine Ford against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.  The president has so ordered it, and says it will take less than a week.

And Mitch McConnell assures us that the new probe will barely interfere with the Senate's march toward confirmation of the judge.  All the Senate's work will be done except the final vote, which will wait, presumably until next weekend, for the FBI report.

I hope it goes that smoothly, and that the Bureau finds nothing to support Ford's vague allegations.  If that happens, no Republican could justify a "no" vote on the Senate floor, and even a few Democrats may act sanely and back the outstanding nominee.

But let's be a little cautious, maybe even a little paranoid.  Paranoia is good.  If conservatives aren't paranoid, they don't understand the left.

Much can go wrong.  Already the lawyers for Professor Ford are beatin' the drums for a longer investigation with no "artificial" limits.   Watch for the echoes from Senate Democrats.

Already the anonymous statements are being published, questioning whether the FBI can meet the deadline.   Consider this, From Fox:   "When asked if they could get the investigation done in a week, a senior FBI official told Fox News, 'That depends on the schedules of everyone we'd have to interview, including the accuser, accused and witnesses.'"  Really?  The president has given an order, but a few more leaked quotes like that, and we'll have trouble in River City.  What happens if the "accuser," Professor Ford, says she needs two weeks to prepare for her interview?  What's the president to say?  "I don't care."  Well, he might, and it would be good.

The FBI is part of the Justice Department.  It has incredible people, but we've seen that some of the top officials, in the last few years, have gone off the reservation and into politics.  If some elements of the Bureau, and in the DOJ, want to get back at President Trump for some grievance, slow-walking this probe would be an ideal way.  The press would love it, and rush again to demand "justice" for Dr. Ford.

And please note that a bad actor can turn up among witnesses, a potential hero in his own mind, who might drop some broad hints about Mr. Kavanaugh's behavior, things that would have to be tracked down.  The FBI knows how to handle false or suspicious charges or rumors, and I have to assume that the agents are on guard. 

It will be a week to remember, and soon to be a major or minor motion picture, or maybe a slideshow in Anderson Cooper's living room.

September 28, 2018       Permalink

SOME NEWS EVENT HAS JUST OCCURRED – AT 2:25 P.M. ET:  And nobody's actually sure what happened.

Okay, technically, Judge Kavanaugh's name has been reported favorably to the U.S. Senate for confirmation as an associate justice of the Supreme Court.

HOWEVER, through the good or bad auspices of Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona, a retiring Republican senator who is part of the never-Trump movement, an understanding was reached that a request would be made by somebody in some room with a working light bulb, that the full Senate consideration of Judge Kavanaugh be delayed for a week while the FBI conducts an additional background check on the judge.  The check would be restricted to the charges made by Professor Ford.

So that's where we are.  The full Senate is not legally bound to honor that request, but some Republican senators who are on the fence are supporting it.  We now learn that the Senate leadership, at least on the GOP side, has come to an agreement on how to proceed, but we don't know what the agreement contains.  It is clear, though, that there will be a brief FBI check. 

Some say this new approach, which gives the Dems the FBI check they've asked for, may have a silver lining for Judge Kavanaugh.  If the FBI comes up with nothing, this reasoning goes, it will give cover for some of the fence sitters to vote for the judge.  Maybe so, but I fear this also has the potential to doom him.  The Democrats are not honest players.  If there is one sentence in the FBI report that intrigues them – "Mr. Kavanaugh dated a girl named Jenny" – they'll seize on it and demand a full probe of his relationship with Jenny, whether she exists or not.

Lindsey Graham expressed barely disguised disgust with this new gimmick, and barely disguised frustration with Jeff Flake, but he did not prevail.  We're back in the Twilight Zone.

Stand by for more.

September 28,  2018     Permalink   

KAV LATEST – AT 11:35 A.M. ET:   The Senate Judiciary Committee has scheduled the vote on Judge Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court for 1:30 p.m. today.  Republican Jeff Flake of Arizona has announced that he will vote to support the judge, meaning that the committee will send a positive recommendation to the Senate floor.  The Senate will probably vote on the nomination by Tuesday night or Wednesday.  If confirmed, Judge Kavanaugh could be sworn in immediately.

Democrats of the Judiciary Committee behaved obnoxiously this morning.  At one point several Dems walked out and held a press conference.  They are playing to their angry base.

Some House Democratic women, a number from the Congressional Black Caucus, paraded in the hearing room, although no one seems quite sure of what message they were sending.

We still have no definitive count of the probable vote on the Senate floor.  Democratic Senator Donnelly of Indiana announced he would vote no.  There are some indications, but no announcement, that Joe Manchin of West Virginia will vote yes.  The key holdouts remain Republicans Collins of Maine and Murkowski of Alaska. 

Expect further delaying tactics from the Democrats.  But Republicans are more energized than they've been in years, and seem determined to get Kavinaugh on the Court this week.

September 28,  2018     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 27,  2018

AFTERMATH – It has been one of the most exhausting journalistic days that I've seen in recent years, maybe the most exhausting.  I've gotten a number of emails from readers saying they are emotionally spent.  In the morning our side lost hope when Professor Christine Ford gave a credible, essentially dignified presentation of her charges against Judge Kavanaugh, while Republicans surrendered the field and barely responded or challenged anything that was alleged. 

And yet, that flipped quickly in the afternoon when Judge Kavanaugh himself took the witness chair and fairly roared his reply to Professor Ford.  We had a voice, and I sometimes felt he was not only defending himself, but leading the Republican Party.  At the end of the day, I think most of us believed we had a good shot at defending the judge.

It was also a day when Lindsey Graham became a great United States senator, in a memorable, powerful statement denouncing the unfairness of the entire process that had been hurled at Judge Kavanaugh.

The latest:  The Senate Judiciary still has a vote scheduled for 9:30 tomorrow (Friday) morning.  The Democrats are solidly against the judge.  The Republicans are almost solidly in favor.   Retiring Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona still will not commit.  His vote is needed to give Judge Kavanaugh a positive committee recommendation to the entire Senate.  However, please note that a negative vote in committee does not kill the nomination.  The full Senate can take it up anyway and vote either to confirm or reject.

Senator Bob Corker, retiring Republican from Tennessee, has announced he will vote in favor of Kavanaugh.  Senator Doug Jones, the new Democratic senator from Alabama, has announced that he will oppose.  That may cost Jones, who is filling out the term of Jeff Sessions, who left the Senate to become attorney general.  Jones must run for a full term in 2020, in a very conservative state.  I don't understand why he's voting against Judge Kavanaugh. 

There are indications that Dem Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia will vote yes, but there are no hints from any other Democrats that they will defect to our side.  The big questions surround Republicans Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.  If they decide for Kavanaugh, the judge may be a safe bet for confirmation.  If they decide against him, the outcome may be more uncertain.   

Get up early.  Committee vote is next.

WELL, WELL, WELL, WHAT A SURPRISE! – AT 8:05 P.M. ET:  My great fear was that Brett Kavanaugh would be weak and accommodating in his testimony today.  He was not.  Clark Kent had gone into the booth and come out as Superjudge.  He was tough, he was blunt, he was impassioned, and he put on a take-no-prisoners defense that stunned the room, and reportedly thrilled the White House. 

He did not try to knock down Professor Ford's claim that she'd been sexually assaulted.  He put on a detailed, persuasive denial that he was the perpetrator.  He also went full blast at the Democrats on the committee, charging them with turning the confirmation process into a national disgrace.  I've never seen senators attacked that way by a nominee.  Of course, they've all announced they would vote against him anyway. They deserved what they got. 

Kavanaugh's emotionally charged presentation was just what was needed to bring Republicans on the Judiciary Committee alive.  Bringing Republicans alive is sometimes biologically impossible, so this was a major event.  And the star was Lindsey Graham, who tore into the Democrats the same way that Joseph Welch, back in 1954, tore into Joe McCarthy.  He shamed them for what they had done to Judge Kavanaugh and his family. 

The entire atmosphere of the hearing changed with Judge Kavanaugh's make-or-break performance.  Republican pessimism turned to optimism.  The president signaled his immense pleasure.  The momentum is with the judge, but I caution that, in this tumultuous contest, things can change quickly.  A committee vote on the nomination is scheduled for tomorrow morning.  If Kavanaugh clears the committe, a vote would soon follow in the full Senate. 

DULL – AT 2:30 P.M. ET:  We haven't published yet today because I'm watching the very disappointing Kavanaugh hearings, and will report in detail later, after Judge Kavanaugh testifies.

I say "disappointing" because the appearance of Professor Christine Ford was anticlimactic.  As one commentator noted, she added nothing to her story.  The chosen Republican questioner, Rachel Mitchell, a sex-crimes prosecutor from Arizona, was entirely too soft and sympathetic, and rarely got to any relevant issues.  The Republican senators were meek, apparently afraid to go after Ford and appear to be attacking a woman.

Ford herself was dignified and "credible," whatever that word means in these circumstances.  Some say Mitchell didn't lay a glove on her, but whatever glove Mitchell was wearing was too padded to do any damage.

A very frustrating session.  It is up to Brett Kavanaugh to defend himself.  He did poorly in a Fox interview earlier this week, coming off as weak and lackluster.  That must not happen again this afternoon.

Stand by.   

September 27, 2018       Permalink